Start with the conversion
Define the behavior you are optimizing and its business value. A form submission, purchase, trial signup, demo request, and webinar registration are not interchangeable.
Use quantitative and qualitative evidence
Analytics can show where performance changes. Heatmaps, recordings where privacy-compliant, surveys, support questions, and user research can help explain why. Neither type of evidence is complete on its own.
Form hypotheses
Translate evidence into a testable statement: changing this part of the experience for this reason should improve this outcome. A hypothesis gives the test strategic meaning.
Run controlled experiments when practical
A/B testing can reduce the risk of attributing normal variation to a redesign. The required traffic and test duration depend on baseline behavior, effect size, and statistical approach.
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Optimize the business outcome
Do not maximize a superficial conversion if it creates worse leads, refunds, churn, or low-quality downstream behavior. The best metric connects the page action to real value.